The Role of Agenda-Setting in Electoral Communication in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2023 Presidential Election

This study applies agenda-setting theory to examine the relationship between media coverage priorities and public issue salience during the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election campaign. Agenda-setting theory posits that the prominence given to issues in media coverage shapes what the public considers politically important, and the election campaign period represents a critical window for examining this relationship in the Nigerian context. This study employs a longitudinal design, analysing media content and public opinion data simultaneously. Content analysis of three national newspapers (The Punch, Daily Trust, The Nation) and two online platforms (The Cable, Peoples Gazette) from September 2022 to February 2023 measures issue salience by story frequency and placement. Monthly survey data from 420 registered voters in Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Enugu, and Port Harcourt tracks public issue importance rankings. Cross-lagged correlation analysis tests the agenda-setting effect from media to public. Analysis of second-level agenda-setting examines attribute framing effects. Findings reveal statistically significant agenda-setting effects for economic issues and insecurity, with media coverage patterns predicting public salience shifts with approximately two-week lag periods. Second-level agenda-setting effects are stronger, with attribute framing of candidates significantly predicting public character evaluations. Social media agenda diverges from traditional media agenda, particularly among younger voters, challenging the traditional unilinear agenda-setting assumption. The study contributes original empirical evidence for agenda-setting theory in a West African electoral context and recommends theoretical refinement to account for multi-platform agenda competition.

Keywords: agenda-setting, electoral communication, 2023 Nigeria elections, media influence, public opinion.