Theoretical Modelling of the Relationship Between Physical Education Quality, Physical Literacy, and Lifelong Physical Activity in Nigeria

A theoretical model explicating the pathways through which school physical education quality influences the development of physical literacy and, consequently, lifelong physical activity participation has not been developed and tested within the Nigerian context, constituting a significant gap in local health and education scholarship. This dissertation develops and tests an original theoretical model of these relationships, integrating physical literacy theory, self-determination theory, and social cognitive theory within a Nigerian physical education context. The theoretical model is constructed through systematic literature synthesis, critical appraisal of existing partial models in the global literature, and expert stakeholder engagement through nominal group process consultations in Lagos, Kano, and Enugu. The model specifies direct and mediated pathways through which physical education quality dimensions, including motivational climate, instructional effectiveness, and health integration, influence physical literacy constructs, which in turn predict young adult physical activity participation. Structural equation modelling is employed to test the model with cross-sectional data from 600 secondary school students and 200 young adults (aged 18 to 25 years) in Oyo and Katsina States. The model achieves acceptable fit, with motivational climate demonstrating the strongest indirect effect on young adult physical activity through physical competence and autonomous motivation pathways. Longitudinal model testing with a subsample provides preliminary prospective validity evidence. The dissertation makes original theoretical contributions to the physical literacy-physical education scholarship and provides a testable model for future research in the sub-Saharan African context. Keywords: physical education quality, physical literacy, lifelong physical activity, theoretical modelling, Nigeria