Development and Validation of a Comprehensive Process Model for Nigeria’s Proposed Modular Refineries: Integration of Process Simulation and Life Cycle Analysis

Nigeria's modular refinery programme represents a strategic policy response to domestic fuel supply insecurity, yet no comprehensive validated process model integrating rigorous thermodynamic simulation with life cycle environmental analysis exists in the published literature for the Nigerian crude slate and regulatory context. This study develops and validates a comprehensive steady-state process simulation model for a 5,000 barrel per day modular refinery processing a representative blend of light and medium crude oils from the Niger Delta in Aspen HYSYS, coupled with a life cycle assessment framework developed in SimaPro using Nigerian-specific inventory data. The simulation model encompasses atmospheric and vacuum distillation, catalytic reforming, isomerisation, diesel hydrotreater, and a combined heat and power system. Model accuracy was validated against publicly available pilot-scale modular refinery data from an operational facility, achieving less than 4% deviation on product yields and energy consumption. Life cycle assessment results revealed that the global warming potential of Nigerian modular refinery production is 0.82 kg CO2 equivalent per kilogram of refined products under business-as-usual assumptions, primarily driven by electricity from captive diesel generation (43% contribution) and crude oil supply chain emissions (31%). Carbon intensity reduction scenarios including grid connection, solar-diesel hybrid power, and biogas supplementation were modelled, with the hybrid power scenario reducing global warming potential by 28%. The study provides a validated process model applicable to all modular refinery configurations under consideration by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Keywords: modular refinery, process simulation, life cycle assessment, Aspen HYSYS, Nigeria