Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Building Permit Compliance and Structural Failure Rates in Lagos State

The relationship between building permit compliance and structural failure rates is a theoretically intuitive but empirically unconfirmed link in the Nigerian context, and establishing this relationship in Lagos State provides critical evidence for regulatory reform. This study empirically analysed the relationship between building permit compliance metrics and building structural failure rates in Lagos State using secondary data from the Lagos State Building Control Agency covering 2015 to 2023. Permit compliance data were extracted for 1,240 building projects, classified by compliance level (fully compliant, partially compliant, and non-compliant). Structural failure data (collapses and serious distress incidents) were obtained from Lagos State Building Control Agency investigation records and newspaper archives. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the odds of structural failure associated with different compliance levels, controlling for building type, age, location, and number of floors. Results showed that non-compliant buildings were 7.4 times more likely to experience structural failure than fully compliant buildings (OR = 7.4, 95% CI: 4.2 to 13.1, p < 0.001). Partial compliance reduced the odds relative to full non-compliance but still produced 3.1 times greater failure odds than full compliance. The absence of professional supervision at any project stage was the single strongest predictor of structural failure (OR = 9.2, p < 0.001). The study provides the first empirical quantification of the compliance-failure relationship in Nigerian building control and recommends the findings be used to justify strengthened regulatory investment by the Lagos State government. Keywords: building permit compliance, structural failure, Lagos State, logistic regression, building control