Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Land Tenure Security on Housing Investment in Informal Settlements in Kaduna State

Land tenure security is theorised to encourage housing investment by providing confidence against eviction, but its empirical effect on housing improvement investment in informal settlements in Kaduna State, North West Nigeria, requires quantification. This study empirically analysed the effect of land tenure security on housing investment levels in three informal settlements in Kaduna: Kawo, Badiko, and Makera. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 300 households. Land tenure security was measured through a composite Tenure Security Index incorporating legal documentation, perceived eviction risk, social acceptance, and dispute history. Housing investment was measured by expenditure on construction improvements in the preceding 5 years and structural quality improvement between respondent's first occupancy and current state. Ordinary least squares regression with instrumental variable correction for endogeneity was employed. Results showed that Tenure Security Index scores were positively and significantly associated with cumulative housing improvement expenditure (beta = 2,340 Naira per index point, p < 0.001). Households with formal certificates of occupancy invested an average of 89% more in housing improvements than those with no documentation. Medium-tenure households (perceived security of 5 to 10 years) invested significantly more than low-tenure households but significantly less than high-tenure households. The study provides robust empirical evidence for the housing investment benefits of tenure formalisation in Kaduna informal settlements and recommends accelerated land tenure regularisation programmes under the Kaduna State Geographic Information Service. Keywords: land tenure security, housing investment, informal settlements, Kaduna State, tenure regularisation