An Original Investigation of the Relationship Between Urban Form, Building Performance, and Climate Change Adaptation in Nigerian Cities Using Agent-Based Modelling

The relationship between urban form, individual building performance, and aggregate city-level climate change adaptation outcomes is complex and non-linear, and agent-based modelling provides a methodology capable of representing these dynamics that has not been applied to Nigerian urban systems. This study investigates the relationship between urban form, building performance, and climate change adaptation in three Nigerian cities: Kaduna (North West), Benin City (South South), and Ibadan (South West), using original agent-based models developed in NetLogo and coupled with EnergyPlus building energy simulation. The agent-based model represents individual buildings as agents with physical properties (envelope performance, occupancy, and equipment), decision-making rules (maintenance and upgrade decisions), and social interaction mechanisms (neighbour effects and information diffusion). Urban form is represented as a spatial network structure calibrated from satellite imagery and field data. Climate change scenarios from CMIP6 data drive the simulation over 30-year horizons. Agent-based model outputs include aggregate energy demand trajectories, neighbourhood-level thermal comfort evolution, and urban heat island intensity change as functions of building upgrade adoption rates. Original contributions include the Urban Form-Building Performance Agent-Based Model architecture, a Building Upgrade Adoption Decision Model capturing social influence and economic rationality, and a Climate Adaptation Index for Nigerian cities derived from simulation outputs. Simulation results show non-linear threshold effects in city-level climate adaptation outcomes: neighbourhoods achieving above 40% energy-efficient building envelope coverage show disproportionate aggregate cooling load reductions (mean: 31% vs. 12% at 20% coverage), with implications for urban climate policy design.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, urban form, climate change adaptation, building performance, Nigerian cities