Developing an Original Systems Thinking Framework for Sustainable Building Material Supply Chain Management in Nigeria

Building material supply chains in Nigeria are characterised by systemic inefficiencies, price volatility, quality inconsistency, and environmental unsustainability that conventional supply chain management frameworks inadequately address, and an original systems thinking framework provides a theoretically richer and practically more effective approach. This study develops an original Systems Thinking Framework for Sustainable Building Material Supply Chain Management in Nigeria (STFSBMSCM), integrating systems thinking methodology, supply chain sustainability theory, and institutional economics into a comprehensive supply chain management model. The framework is constructed through three research phases. Phase One applied causal loop diagramming with 60 supply chain stakeholders across four material sectors (cement, steel, timber, and aggregate) in all six geopolitical zones to develop an original Causal Structure Map of the Nigerian Building Material Supply System, identifying key feedback loops, leverage points, and system archetypes. Phase Two conducted quantitative system dynamics simulation using Vensim software, calibrated against 10 years of material price, production, and import data, to predict the behaviour of the supply system under alternative policy scenarios. Phase Three developed and tested the STFSBMSCM framework through structured workshops with 45 industry and government stakeholders, assessing practical applicability and identifying implementation priorities. Simulation results identify five high-leverage interventions that, in combination, could reduce material price volatility by 28% and improve supply consistency by 34% over a 10-year period. The STFSBMSCM constitutes the first systems thinking-based supply chain framework for the Nigerian building materials sector, with recommendations for the Standards Organisation of Nigeria, the Building Materials Producers Association of Nigeria, and the Federal Ministry of Industry Trade and Investment.

Keywords: systems thinking, supply chain management, building materials, Nigeria, sustainability