📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
The relationship between construction industry development and national economic transformation is theoretically complex, involving dynamic interactions between construction output, employment, technology diffusion, and institutional development, and original empirical investigation of this nexus for Nigeria provides both scholarly and policy contributions. This study conducts an original macroeconometric and institutional analysis of the nexus between construction industry development and national economic transformation in Nigeria for the period 1990 to 2023. Construction industry development is operationalised through four dimensions: output growth, labour absorption, technology upgrading, and professional institution development. National economic transformation is measured by structural economic change (manufacturing value-added share, service sector share), total factor productivity growth, and Human Development Index improvement. Cointegration analysis, vector error correction modelling, and Granger causality tests assess dynamic relationships between construction development dimensions and economic transformation indicators. Qualitative institutional analysis through 50 expert interviews supplements the quantitative analysis by explaining mechanisms and identifying institutional moderating factors. Results confirm bidirectional Granger causality between construction output growth and GDP growth, with construction leading GDP in the short run. Construction employment multiplier effects are estimated at 2.7 additional economy-wide jobs per construction sector job (1.8 direct and 0.9 indirect), significantly higher than estimates from other studies. Technology upgrading in construction is found to be a significant positive predictor of total factor productivity growth (coefficient = 0.18, p < 0.01). The study produces original evidence on the construction-development nexus in Nigeria and recommends an integrated Construction Industry Development Strategy as part of Nigeria's economic transformation agenda. Keywords: construction industry development, economic transformation, macroeconometric analysis, Nigeria, employment multiplier
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