The Political Economy of Chinese Debt in Nigeria: A Structural Analysis Using World Systems Theory

Nigeria's accumulation of Chinese infrastructure debt has been interpreted through debt trap, win-win cooperation, and strategic rivalry analytical lenses, none of which provides a structurally adequate theoretical account of the political economy of Sino-Nigerian financial relations. This study develops a structural political economy analysis of Chinese debt in Nigeria using World Systems Theory as the primary theoretical framework, supplemented by insights from the varieties of capitalism literature and dependency theory. The study employs a comprehensive multi-method approach including systematic analysis of all Sino-Nigerian loan agreements accessible through Freedom of Information requests, IMF Article IV documentation, and AidData research, combined with 35 elite interviews with senior Nigerian economic officials, Chinese financial institution representatives, and independent economists. Agent-based modelling is used to simulate debt trajectory scenarios under alternative macroeconomic assumptions. The study makes three original theoretical contributions: first, it develops a Peripheral State Debt Cycle model that explains Nigeria's recurring vulnerability to Chinese debt accumulation through structural features of its resource-dependent economy; second, it introduces the concept of developmental conditionality inversion to describe how Chinese loans impose infrastructure conditionalities rather than the governance conditionalities characteristic of Western lenders; and third, it provides empirical evidence on the geographic concentration of Chinese infrastructure investment that challenges both dependency and win-win narratives. Findings have implications for debt governance policy and theoretical models of Sino-African economic relations.

Keywords: Chinese debt, political economy, World Systems Theory, Nigeria, structural analysis