Developing a Theoretical Model of Sino-Nigerian Economic Interdependence: Structural Coupling and Vulnerability Analysis

The deepening economic interdependence between China and Nigeria exhibits structural features that create both efficiency gains and systemic vulnerability to external shocks, currency crises, and deliberate economic pressure. No theoretical model specifically developed for the Sino-Nigerian bilateral case captures these structural interdependence dynamics adequately. This study develops an original theoretical model of Sino-Nigerian economic interdependence drawing on international political economy, complex network theory, and structural vulnerability analysis. The study employs a comprehensive econometric and network analysis design, constructing a bilateral economic interdependence network from thirty years of trade, investment, debt, and remittance data (1993 to 2023). Network topology measures including density, centrality, and vulnerability scores are calculated and their determinants analysed. Counterfactual simulation analysis explores how hypothetical shocks to the bilateral relationship would propagate through the Nigerian economy under different levels of interdependence. The original Sino-Nigerian Interdependence Model identifies a structural asymmetry pattern in which Nigeria's export dependence on China (primarily crude oil) creates greater vulnerability than China's dependence on Nigeria as a consumer market. Four structural coupling mechanisms are identified and theorised: commodity price linkage, debt service obligation, technology import dependence, and remittance channel concentration. The model generates specific vulnerability reduction recommendations and makes an original contribution to structural interdependence theory applicable to other China-Africa bilateral relationships.

Keywords: Sino-Nigerian interdependence, structural coupling, vulnerability analysis, network theory, economic model