Empirical Investigation of the Relationship Between Religious Extremism and Terrorist Recruitment in Northern Nigeria

The relationship between religious extremism as an ideological disposition and actual terrorist recruitment is theoretically debated, with scholars questioning whether ideology drives recruitment or post-hoc rationalises economically and socially motivated participation, and empirically examining this relationship in northern Nigerian contexts provides critical counter-terrorism intelligence. This study empirically investigated the relationship between religious extremism indicators and terrorist recruitment vulnerability among youth in Borno, Kano, and Kaduna States, representing the North East and North West zones. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 360 youth aged 16 to 30 in community and religious education settings. The Violent Extremism Risk Assessment scale adapted for Nigerian Muslim contexts measured extremism indicators, and recruitment vulnerability was assessed through validated vignette-based scenarios. Binary logistic regression and structural equation modelling were applied. Results showed that high religious extremism scores significantly predicted recruitment vulnerability (OR 5.4, p < 0.001). However, grievance (perceived injustice) (OR 4.7) and social identity seeking (OR 3.9) showed comparable predictive power. A structural equation model confirmed that extremism partially mediated the relationship between economic marginalisation and recruitment vulnerability, accounting for 34 percent of the total effect. The study provides empirical evidence that extremism is an amplifier rather than a primary cause of recruitment vulnerability. Recommendations include counter-narrative programmes targeting grievance narratives alongside religious programming, economic inclusion, and identity affirmation as complementary CVE dimensions. Keywords: religious extremism, terrorist recruitment, northern Nigeria, radicalisation, counter-terrorism