Analytical Study of the Effects of Climate Change on Conflict Patterns in the Lake Chad Basin Region

Climate change-induced resource scarcity has been theorised as a driver of conflict in the Lake Chad Basin region, but the specific mechanisms through which climate-related stress translates into observable conflict patterns in the Nigerian portion of the basin require analytical examination grounded in empirical evidence. This study analytically examined the relationship between climate-related environmental stressors and armed conflict patterns in the Lake Chad Basin zone of Borno and Yobe States from 2010 to 2023. A mixed-methods analytical design combining secondary data analysis and qualitative fieldwork was employed. Environmental data (rainfall deficits, lake surface area reduction, vegetation index changes) from NASA MODIS and Lake Chad Basin Commission records were analysed alongside georeferenced conflict event data from ACLED and food security data from FEWS NET. Correlation analysis and time-lagged regression examined environment-conflict relationships. A significant negative correlation was found between rainfall anomaly and conflict event frequency (r = -0.61, p < 0.001) with a 6 to 9 month lag. Lake contraction events were followed by herder-farmer conflict spikes in 82 percent of documented instances. Qualitative fieldwork with 20 community leaders in four Lake Chad Basin communities confirmed resource competition as the primary conflict trigger, mediated by governance failure in water resource management. The study provides analytical evidence for the climate-conflict nexus in the Nigerian Lake Chad Basin and recommends climate adaptation programming as a conflict prevention strategy. Keywords: climate change, conflict, Lake Chad Basin, Borno State, climate-security nexus