Designing a Climate-Smart Crop Production Advisory System for Rice Farmers in Kebbi State

Climate variability is increasingly disrupting the timing and intensity of rainfall in Nigeria's north-western rice belt, and a climate-smart advisory system that integrates seasonal climate forecasts with agronomic management guidance would help rice farmers optimise planting decisions and input use under uncertain conditions. This study designed a climate-smart crop production advisory system for smallholder rice farmers in Argungu, Danko-Wasagu, and Maiyama LGAs of Kebbi State, North West Nigeria. A professional system design methodology was employed, drawing on historical rainfall analysis for Kebbi using 30-year NIMET data, agronomic response data from irrigation and dryland rice trials, structured consultations with 16 agrometeorologists and rice agronomists, and focus groups with 40 rice farmers. The designed advisory system comprises seasonal rainfall onset and cessation probability tables, planting date windows linked to onset probability, supplemental irrigation trigger rules based on rainfall deficit thresholds, variety selection matrices aligned with season length projections, and input use adjustment guidelines for below- and above-average rainfall scenarios. Delivery mechanisms using SMS advisory systems and radio broadcasts in Hausa are specified, referencing the NIMET seasonal forecast dissemination network. Expert review by six climate-smart agriculture and advisory system specialists confirmed the system's technical and practical adequacy. The study recommends the system be piloted in cooperation with the Kebbi State ADP and NIMET, with farmer feedback loops built into the first two years of implementation to enable iterative improvement.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, rice advisory system, seasonal forecast, Kebbi State, planting decision