Professional Evaluation of the Performance of Nigeria’s Anchor Borrowers Programme in Cereal Production in the North

The Central Bank of Nigeria's Anchor Borrowers Programme has provided billions of naira in credit to smallholder cereal farmers since 2015, but its actual impact on productivity, repayment, and sustainable agricultural development requires rigorous professional evaluation to guide programme reform. This study evaluated the agricultural production outcomes, credit recovery performance, and operational challenges of the Anchor Borrowers Programme for wheat and maize in Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna States for the period 2019 to 2023. A professional evaluation methodology was employed, drawing on CBN programme monitoring reports, state government implementation records, structured interviews with 20 programme management staff, 60 beneficiary farmers, and 8 anchor company representatives, and an independent yield assessment of 30 beneficiary farms. Evaluation showed that beneficiary maize yields averaged 2.7 t ha-1, below the programme target of 3.5 t ha-1, while wheat yields averaged 2.9 t ha-1 against a 4.0 t ha-1 target. Loan repayment rates were 54.3 percent at 24 months post-disbursement. Input diversion (selling subsidised inputs rather than applying them) was reported by 23.3 percent of surveyed farmers. Anchor company offtake price disputes affected 38.3 percent of beneficiaries. The study concludes that the programme underachieves productivity targets due to implementation gaps. Recommendations include mandatory farmer training as a loan condition, offtake price pre-agreement with beneficiaries, and independent harvest verification before loan closure.

Keywords: Anchor Borrowers Programme, cereal production, Nigeria, programme evaluation, credit scheme