Analytical Study of the Impact of Climate Variability on Sorghum Production Trends in North West Nigeria (2000 to 2023)

Long-term trends in sorghum production in North West Nigeria are shaped by interactions between climate variability, technology adoption, and policy environment, and distinguishing climate-driven yield changes from technology-driven changes is analytically important for projecting future production under climate change scenarios. This study analytically examined the contribution of climate variability to sorghum production trends in Sokoto, Kebbi, and Zamfara States from 2000 to 2023. A time-series analysis methodology was employed, using official sorghum area harvested and total production data from the National Bureau of Statistics alongside CHIRPS satellite-derived rainfall data and temperature records from three meteorological stations. Regression decomposition was applied to separate trend, climate variability, and residual (technology) components of production change. Results showed a mean annual production growth of 2.8 percent, with climate variability explaining 34 percent of inter-annual yield variance. Rainfall deficit years (below 600 mm) showed mean yield 41.3 percent below long-term average. Production growth in non-drought years was 68 percent attributable to area expansion and 32 percent to yield improvement, suggesting that area expansion rather than productivity improvement drove most observed growth. Positive yield trend was identified in years following the introduction of drought-tolerant varieties (from 2015 onward), accounting for an estimated 0.34 t ha-1 yield improvement attributable to technology uptake. The study provides analytical evidence for the need to accelerate drought-tolerant variety adoption as a climate adaptation strategy in North West Nigeria.

Keywords: climate variability, sorghum production, North West Nigeria, time-series analysis, drought adaptation