Professional Evaluation of Trade Liberalisation Effects on Nigerian Manufacturing Under the AfCFTA

The African Continental Free Trade Area presents both opportunities and threats for Nigerian manufacturers, and professionally evaluating its potential effects provides evidence for trade adjustment policy and business strategy under the agreement. This study professionally evaluated the anticipated effects of AfCFTA trade liberalisation on Nigerian manufacturing sectors. A computable general equilibrium model-based impact assessment was supplemented by structured consultations with 30 manufacturing sector representatives, 12 trade economists, and 6 Nigerian Export Promotion Council officials. Simulation results estimated that full AfCFTA implementation would expand Nigerian manufacturing exports to Africa by 34 percent over 10 years but expose currently protected sectors (food processing, textiles, plastics) to intensified competitive pressure, with potential output declines of 8 to 17 percent in the most vulnerable sectors. Export-competitive sectors including petrochemicals, cement, and agricultural inputs showed strong expansion potential. SME manufacturers faced higher adjustment costs than large firms. The study concludes that AfCFTA outcomes for Nigerian manufacturing are highly sector-specific. Recommendations include a National AfCFTA Manufacturing Adjustment Plan, targeted trade capacity building for SME manufacturers, negotiation of sensitive product list protections for vulnerable industries, and investment incentives for industrial upgrading in export-competitive sectors.

Keywords: AfCFTA, trade liberalisation, Nigerian manufacturing, computable general equilibrium, trade policy Regional value chain integration strategies that link Nigerian manufacturers to AfCFTA-wide production networks are also recommended as a medium-term competitiveness measure.