Examining the Research Gap in Labour Market Effects of Large-Scale Agricultural Investment in North Central Nigeria

Large-scale agricultural investments in North Central Nigeria have generated significant debate over their employment and livelihood effects on local communities, yet rigorous empirical evidence from the zone remains very limited, creating a research gap with major policy implications. This study examined the research gap in labour market effects of large-scale agricultural investment (LSAI) in North Central Nigeria through systematic review and original empirical research. A systematic review of eight databases identified only 12 empirical publications from 2018 to 2024 on LSAI labour effects in Nigeria, of which only 3 were based on North Central zone data. Original empirical research used a treatment-control comparison of 200 households in communities adjacent to three large-scale agricultural investments in Benue and Nasarawa States versus 200 households in comparable non-investment communities. Difference-in-differences estimation was applied. Results showed positive short-run employment effects (18.4 percent higher wage employment in investment-adjacent communities) but significant displacement of small-scale farmers from invested land (24.6 percent of surveyed households). Seasonal and permanent employment ratios favoured seasonal work (76 percent of created jobs), limiting welfare stability. Female wage employment was disproportionately lower than male employment in LSAI activities. The study identifies three priority research gaps and recommends mandatory social impact assessments for all LSAI projects, community benefit agreements, and gender employment targets in investment licences.

Keywords: large-scale agricultural investment, labour market, North Central Nigeria, employment effects, research gap