Examining the Research Gap in the Economics of Conflict and Household Welfare in North East Nigeria

Conflict imposes profound economic costs on households, but rigorous empirical measurement of conflict's welfare effects in the Nigerian North East zone is severely limited, creating a gap in the evidence base for both security policy and humanitarian economic recovery programming. This study examined the research gap in the economics of conflict and household welfare in North East Nigeria through systematic review and original analysis. A systematic scoping review of nine databases identified 22 empirical publications from 2018 to 2024 on conflict economics in the North East, of which only 7 used formal welfare measurement and fewer than 4 employed causal identification strategies. Original empirical research used a spatial regression discontinuity design comparing welfare outcomes between communities just inside and just outside the high-intensity conflict zone boundary in Borno State. Data from the UNHCR household survey (n = 1,400) were used. Results showed a welfare loss of 38.4 percent (measured in per capita consumption) attributable to being within the high-conflict zone. Agricultural income losses accounted for 47 percent of total welfare loss. Children's educational attainment showed long-run scarring effects, with affected cohorts showing 2.1 fewer years of schooling on average. Female-headed households showed 24 percent larger welfare losses than male-headed households. The study proposes a North East Conflict-Welfare Research Agenda and recommends NEDC and international humanitarian organisations prioritising rigorous impact evaluation in recovery programming.

Keywords: conflict economics, household welfare, North East Nigeria, spatial discontinuity, Borno State