Federalism, Education Policy Coherence, and Basic Education Outcomes in Nigeria: A Multi-Level Analysis

This study conducts a multi-level analysis of the relationship between Nigeria's federal governance structure, education policy coherence, and basic education outcomes across the six geopolitical zones. Nigeria's constitutional division of educational responsibilities among federal, state, and local government tiers has produced persistent coordination challenges, policy inconsistencies, and inequitable outcomes across the national school system. Existing analyses have treated these relationships in partial or descriptive terms; a comprehensive multi-level theorisation is lacking. The study employs a hierarchical mixed methods design. The macro level employs documentary analysis of federal and state education policy instruments spanning 2015 to 2024. The meso level involves 48 semi-structured interviews with senior education officials across 12 states. The micro level uses administrative data from 500 schools across all zones to model multi-level predictors of basic education outcomes. Hierarchical linear modelling, policy coherence analysis, and institutional theory inform the analytical framework. Findings reveal that policy incoherence, manifested as contradictory federal and state mandates, irregular intergovernmental fund flows, and misaligned accountability systems, is the primary systemic driver of educational outcome inequality across zones. States with higher policy coherence scores consistently produce better basic education outcomes, regardless of relative wealth. The study makes an original theoretical contribution by constructing a Policy Coherence-Outcomes Model for the Nigerian federal education system. Keywords: federalism, policy coherence, basic education outcomes, multi-level analysis, Nigeria.