Structural Determinants of Academic Staff Retention in Nigerian State Universities: A Political Economy Analysis

This study conducts a political economy analysis of the structural determinants of academic staff retention in state universities in Nigeria. The persistent haemorrhage of academic talent from Nigerian state universities to foreign institutions, private sector employment, and other destinations constitutes a systemic challenge to the capacity and quality of state higher education. Existing retention studies have largely focused on individual motivational factors, neglecting the broader political economy structures within which retention decisions are embedded. The study employs a critical realist mixed methods design, combining panel data analysis of academic staff attrition in 12 state universities across the South West, South South, and North Central zones from 2015 to 2023 with 50 in-depth interviews with academic staff, university administrators, and union representatives. Fixed-effects panel regression is used to model structural predictors of attrition, while critical thematic analysis is applied to qualitative data. The study draws on Political Economy Theory, Human Capital Theory, and the Institutional Theory of academic labour markets. Findings identify governance instability, salary erosion relative to inflation, politicised appointment processes, poor research infrastructure, and state government interference in university autonomy as the primary structural drivers of academic staff attrition. The study contributes an original Political Economy of Academic Retention Model contextualised to the Nigerian state university system and makes recommendations directed at constitutional reform, governance restructuring, and academic salary indexation policy. Keywords: academic staff retention, political economy, state universities, attrition, higher education Nigeria.