A Longitudinal Analysis of Educational Policy Implementation Fidelity and School Quality in Nigeria: 2010 to 2023

This study provides the first systematic longitudinal analysis of education policy implementation fidelity and its relationship to school quality improvement in Nigeria over the period 2010 to 2023, examining multiple reform cycles across three education subsystems. Implementation fidelity, the degree to which policy provisions are enacted as designed, is a critical but understudied determinant of whether education reforms produce intended outcomes. Nigeria's education system has been characterised by a recurring pattern of ambitious policy reform followed by implementation gaps, but longitudinal evidence on the fidelity-outcome relationship has not been systematically assembled. This study employs a longitudinal mixed-method design, combining time-series analysis of school quality data from NUC, UBEC, and WAEC databases for 200 schools across 20 states with qualitative analysis of policy documents, implementation reports, and 50 key informant interviews with education officials, school leaders, and NGO representatives. Policy implementation fidelity is operationalised using an original multi-dimensional index covering resourcing, capacity, monitoring, and stakeholder alignment dimensions. School quality trajectories are modelled using growth curve analysis. Fixed effects panel regression links fidelity scores to quality trends. Results demonstrate a robust positive relationship between implementation fidelity and school quality improvement across all subsystems. Reforms with fidelity scores above 60 percent generated measurable quality gains within three years, while low-fidelity implementations showed no significant quality change. Funding adequacy and political continuity emerged as the strongest fidelity determinants. The study contributes an original Implementation Fidelity Index for Nigerian education and recommends that all major education policy initiatives include mandatory fidelity monitoring as a condition of World Bank and donor funding.

Keywords: policy implementation fidelity, school quality, longitudinal analysis, Nigeria, education reform.