Complexity Theory and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Niches in Nigeria’s Informal Economy

This dissertation applies complexity theory to examine how entrepreneurial niches emerge within Nigeria's informal economy, arguing that niche formation in the informal sector is a self-organising, emergent process rather than a planned or individually created phenomenon. Informal economy entrepreneurship research has focused predominantly on individual entrepreneur behaviour and the structural constraints of informality, leaving the collective and systemic processes through which new entrepreneurial niches emerge from informal market dynamics undertheorised. Complexity theory, with its attention to emergence, self-organisation, feedback loops, and co-evolution, offers a more appropriate framework for understanding these collective dynamics. The dissertation applies complexity theory through a longitudinal ethnographic study of three emerging informal entrepreneurial niches in different Nigerian geopolitical zones: the emergence of a digital device repair ecosystem in the Alaba International Market, Lagos; the co-evolution of solar energy micro-entrepreneurship with artisanal gold mining communities in Zamfara State; and the emergence of a climate adaptation agriculture innovation niche among smallholder entrepreneurs in Benue State. Each case is studied for 18 months through participant observation, repeated interviews with niche actors, and social network mapping. Complexity analysis tools including agent-based modelling, attractor state identification, and bifurcation point analysis are applied to each case. The dissertation's original theoretical contribution is a Complexity Theory of Informal Niche Emergence that identifies the generative mechanisms through which informal entrepreneurs co-create niche ecosystems from local resource interactions, and the tipping point conditions under which nascent niches either stabilise or collapse. Keywords: complexity theory, informal economy, entrepreneurial niche, emergence, Nigeria.