Advancing Environmental Management Theory Through Complexity Science: Applications to Wicked Environmental Problems in Nigeria

This dissertation advances environmental management theory by applying complexity science concepts to the analysis and management of wicked environmental problems in Nigeria, developing original theoretical tools for understanding and governing complex adaptive systems that conventional environmental management frameworks are not equipped to handle. Wicked environmental problems, characterised by multiple interacting causes, contested objectives, uncertain dynamics, and no definitive solution, are increasingly the dominant challenge class for environmental management globally, and Nigeria's most pressing environmental problems, from oil pollution governance in the Niger Delta to desertification management in the north and biodiversity loss in tropical forests, exemplify this problem class. The theoretical contribution extends complexity science concepts including emergence, non-linearity, feedback loops, tipping points, and adaptive cycles, which have been primarily applied in ecological research, to the institutional and governance dimensions of environmental management. Original frameworks developed include a Wicked Problem Typology for Nigerian Environmental Management that classifies major environmental challenges by their complexity profile, an Adaptive Management Cycle tailored for high-uncertainty, multi-actor Nigerian governance contexts, and a Complexity-Informed Governance Design Toolkit that translates complexity science principles into practical governance design recommendations. Empirical validation is conducted through three in-depth case studies of environmental management responses to different wicked problem types: the Niger Delta oil pollution system, the Lake Chad Basin management system, and the North Central land degradation and conflict nexus. Each case is modelled as a complex adaptive system using causal loop diagram methodology and validated through expert stakeholder review. Keywords: complexity science, wicked problems, environmental management theory, Nigeria, adaptive governance.