A Systems Framework for Managing Coupled Environmental and Economic Transitions in Nigeria’s Hydrocarbon-Dependent Economy

This dissertation develops an original systems framework for managing the coupled environmental and economic transitions facing Nigeria's hydrocarbon-dependent economy, examining how the global energy transition intersects with Nigeria's domestic environmental management challenges to create a compound transition that requires integrated governance responses. Nigeria's economy and state revenues are deeply dependent on fossil fuel production, and the global shift towards renewable energy creates both the imperative and the opportunity for a fundamental economic and environmental management transition. However, existing transition frameworks, developed primarily from European energy transition experience, do not adequately model the specific characteristics of a hydrocarbon-dependent developing country economy with severe existing environmental management deficits, large informal economic sectors, and fragile governance institutions. The original theoretical contribution is a Coupled Transition Systems Framework that integrates energy economics, ecological economics, environmental governance theory, and complex adaptive systems concepts to model the interactions between the energy transition, economic diversification, and environmental management trajectories in Nigeria over a forty-year horizon. The framework is operationalised through a system dynamics model parameterised with Nigerian economic, environmental, and energy data, which is used to simulate transition pathways under alternative policy configurations. Empirical grounding involves structured consultations with forty stakeholders across government, civil society, industry, and academia in the six geopolitical zones. The model's scenario outputs generate insights on the environmental management investment sequences and governance reforms most likely to achieve a coupled environmental and economic transition that reduces both ecological damage and economic dependence on hydrocarbons. Keywords: energy transition, environmental management, system dynamics, Nigeria, hydrocarbon economy.