Public Debt Management and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A 20-Year Review

Nigeria's rising public debt profile has triggered substantial policy debate about its sustainability and its implications for macroeconomic performance and development financing. This study conducts a 20-year retrospective review of public debt management and its relationship with economic growth in Nigeria, covering the period from 2004 to 2023. Secondary data are sourced from the Debt Management Office of Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, and the National Bureau of Statistics. The study employs time-series analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics between total public debt stock, debt servicing obligations, and real gross domestic product growth. The theoretical underpinning draws on the debt overhang hypothesis, Keynesian debt-led growth models, and endogenous growth theory. The study covers critical periods including post-Obasanjo debt relief, the 2009 global financial crisis, the commodity price crashes of 2014 to 2016, and the COVID-19 fiscal expansion of 2020. Existing literature from both international and Nigerian scholars highlights a complex, non-linear relationship where moderate debt levels stimulate growth while excessive borrowing constrains it. This study contributes to the debate on Nigeria's current debt trajectory and the adequacy of the Debt Management Office's medium-term debt management strategy. The findings carry implications for fiscal policy, National Assembly oversight, and budget transparency advocacy. Keywords: public debt, economic growth, debt management, Nigeria, debt sustainability