Assessment of Reforestation Success in Afaka Forest Reserve, Kaduna State: A Survival and Growth Analysis

State-led reforestation programmes in northern Nigeria have historically suffered from inadequate post-planting monitoring and high seedling mortality, limiting their effectiveness as forest restoration interventions. This study assesses the survival rates, growth performance, and species suitability of reforestation plots established between 2019 and 2022 in Afaka Forest Reserve, Kaduna State. A systematic inventory of twelve planting blocks covering 340 hectares was conducted, with measurements of height, diameter at collar, crown spread, and survival status taken at individual tree level. Data were analysed to compute survival rates by species, planting year, and microsite conditions. Tectona grandis, Gmelina arborea, and Eucalyptus camaldulensis were the primary species planted. Survival rates varied substantially by species and plot location, ranging from 34% to 78%. Eucalyptus performed best on sandy soils in drier sections of the reserve, while Gmelina showed superior survival on loamy soils with seasonal drainage. Competition from Imperata cylindrica grass was identified as the most significant post-planting constraint. Plots subjected to weeding in the first two years showed 28% higher survival rates. The study recommends systematic post-planting maintenance protocols, species-site matching guidelines, and investment in suppression of invasive grasses as prerequisites for sustainable reforestation outcomes in the Sudan savanna zone. Keywords: reforestation, survival rate, Afaka Forest Reserve, Gmelina arborea, Kaduna State