Patterns of Deforestation and Land Use Change in Anambra State Using Multi-Temporal Satellite Imagery

Rapid population growth and intensified land use conversion have driven significant deforestation in Anambra State, one of the most densely populated states in southeastern Nigeria, yet spatially explicit deforestation mapping for the state remains sparse in the recent scientific literature. This study analyses land use and land cover change in Anambra State over a twenty-year period using Landsat and Sentinel imagery from 2004, 2014, and 2024. Maximum likelihood supervised classification was applied to each time step, with six land cover categories delineated: closed forest, open forest and shrubland, farmland, water bodies, urban and built-up areas, and bare soil. Post-classification change detection and transition matrices were generated. Accuracy assessment using stratified random sampling achieved overall classification accuracy above 85% for all time steps. Results reveal a net loss of 31,200 hectares of forest and shrubland over the twenty-year period, representing a 58% reduction from the 2004 baseline. Urban expansion and smallholder agricultural intensification accounted for 71% of forest conversion. The northern senatorial zone experienced disproportionately higher deforestation rates than the riverine south. Annual deforestation rates accelerated between 2014 and 2024 compared to the earlier decade. The study provides spatially explicit data to support state-level forest policy revision and highlights priority locations for reforestation investment under Nigeria's Great Green Wall Programme. Keywords: deforestation, land use change, Anambra State, remote sensing, LULCC