Spatial Modelling of Suitable Habitat for African Wild Dog (Lycaon pictus) Reintroduction in Nigeria

The African wild dog is functionally extinct in Nigeria, with no confirmed resident populations since the late twentieth century, yet intact savanna ecosystems in parts of northern Nigeria may retain ecological conditions sufficient for reintroduction if adequate prey base, landscape connectivity, and reduced human-wildlife conflict potential can be verified. This study applies maximum entropy species distribution modelling to identify areas of suitable habitat for African wild dog reintroduction in Nigeria, using occurrence records from West African populations combined with contemporary environmental covariate data. Environmental variables included vegetation type, normalised difference vegetation index seasonality, human population density, road density, livestock density, and protected area coverage. Model performance was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve statistics and cross-validation. Sensitivity analyses tested model behaviour under different regularisation settings. Results identify approximately 14,200 square kilometres of highly suitable habitat, concentrated in the Kainji Lake National Park-Borgu complex and adjacent forest reserves in Niger, Kwara, and Kwara States, as well as portions of the Gashaka-Gumti landscape in Taraba State. Connectivity analysis reveals that the two primary suitable habitat blocks are currently separated by a 110-kilometre human-dominated matrix, necessitating corridor establishment for landscape-level management. Human-wildlife conflict risk was highest at habitat peripheries with elevated livestock density. The study provides the first spatial framework for wild dog reintroduction feasibility assessment in Nigeria and recommends stakeholder consultation in three priority candidate areas as an immediate next step. Keywords: African wild dog, species distribution model, MaxEnt, reintroduction, habitat suitability