Determinants of Forest-Dependent Household Vulnerability to Climate Change in Borno State

Forest-dependent households in the Lake Chad basin region of Borno State face compound vulnerabilities from climate variability, land degradation, and ongoing conflict, yet the specific pathways through which climate change exacerbates their livelihood insecurity are not well characterised in the empirical literature. This study examines the determinants of climate vulnerability among forest-dependent households in three rural communities of Borno State, using a livelihood vulnerability index framework adapted for dryland agroforestry contexts. Data from structured interviews with 175 household heads were used to construct composite scores for six vulnerability dimensions: food security, water access, forest resource dependence, health stress, social networks, and climate variability exposure. Multiple regression analysis identified household-level determinants of total vulnerability scores. Asset diversity was the strongest negative predictor of vulnerability, while high forest product income dependence compounded exposure to climate-induced forest degradation. Displacement history, prevalent among conflict-affected respondents, significantly increased vulnerability across all dimensions. Women-headed households showed systematically higher vulnerability despite lower forest product exploitation intensity, driven primarily by social capital deficits and reduced access to extension services. Tree cover on farmland was associated with lower food security vulnerability, even controlling for asset levels. The study argues for climate adaptation interventions that simultaneously reduce forest resource dependence through alternative livelihood diversification while promoting on-farm tree retention as a resilience-building strategy in Borno State. Keywords: climate vulnerability, forest dependence, livelihood index, Borno State, adaptation