Urban Land Markets, Housing Affordability, and Sociospatial Inequality in Lagos State

Rising urban land values and market-driven housing development in Lagos State are generating deepening sociospatial inequalities that systematically exclude low- and middle-income households from accessing adequate housing within reasonable commuting distance of employment opportunities in Nigeria's most economically productive city in the South West geopolitical zone. This study empirically analyses the relationship between urban land market dynamics, housing affordability, and sociospatial inequality in Lagos State using a mixed-methods research design combining hedonic price modelling, household survey data, and spatial analysis of segregation patterns. Residential land transaction data covering 2,840 surveyed transactions in 24 local government areas from 2019 to 2023 were obtained from the Lagos State Land Registry and used to calibrate a hedonic price model with 14 locational, structural, and neighbourhood attribute predictors. Housing affordability was assessed using price-to-income ratios computed from the Lagos State Bureau of Statistics household income estimates. Gini-based spatial segregation indices were computed for residential land values and housing quality at ward level to quantify inequality intensity and spatial patterning. Results confirm that land value gradients in Lagos are among the steepest in West Africa, with values in Victoria Island and Ikoyi exceeding those in Mushin and Ajegunle by factors exceeding 120, even after controlling for structural attributes. Price-to-income ratios indicate that formal housing is effectively unaffordable for households in the bottom four income quintiles anywhere within Lagos Island and Eti Osa LGAs. The study identifies market liberalisation since 2016 as an amplifier of pre-existing inequalities and recommends inclusionary zoning and community land trust frameworks as redistributive policy instruments. Keywords: land markets, housing affordability, inequality, Lagos, South West Nigeria.