Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of Urban Expansion and Ecosystem Service Losses in Abuja Federal Capital Territory

The rapid spatial expansion of Abuja, Nigeria's federal capital in the North Central geopolitical zone, is generating ecosystem service losses from forests, wetlands, and grasslands converted to urban land uses at rates that have not been systematically quantified using ecosystem service valuation frameworks that could inform environmentally integrated urban planning decisions. This study assesses urban expansion dynamics and associated ecosystem service losses in the Abuja Federal Capital Territory between 2010 and 2023 using multi-temporal remote sensing and benefit transfer-based ecosystem service valuation. Urban expansion was quantified from Landsat 8 time-series classification of land cover change across the entire FCT. Ecosystem services assessed included carbon storage, water regulation, biodiversity habitat provision, and aesthetic and recreational amenity, drawing on established unit value transfer estimates calibrated for West African contexts. Spatial analysis of the temporal sequence of ecosystem conversion identified priority zones where rapid expansion is most actively transforming high-value ecosystems. Stakeholder interviews with FCDA planners, environmental consultants, and conservation NGO representatives contextualised findings within FCT governance frameworks. Results document the conversion of approximately 47,000 hectares of forest, wetland, and grassland between 2010 and 2023, with estimated cumulative ecosystem service losses valued at USD 340 million in constant 2023 prices. Carbon storage losses dominate the value estimate, contributing 62 percent of the total, followed by water regulation services at 21 percent. The study proposes an ecosystem service offset mechanism for high-value land conversion applications as a policy instrument for internalising environmental costs in FCT development decision-making. Keywords: urban expansion, ecosystem services, remote sensing, Abuja, North Central Nigeria.