Spatial Analysis of Deforestation Patterns in Ondo State’s Forest Reserves, South West Nigeria

Deforestation in Nigeria's forest reserves continues at an alarming rate, driven by illegal logging, agricultural expansion, and charcoal production. This study analyses deforestation patterns within three gazetted forest reserves in Ondo State using multi-temporal satellite imagery covering the period 2016 to 2023. Supervised image classification using maximum likelihood algorithm was applied to Sentinel-2 imagery, and forest cover change statistics were extracted using Geographic Information Systems. Field validation was conducted through transect walks and interviews with 120 community members and forest guards. The study finds that the selected reserves lost approximately 27 percent of their original forest cover within the seven-year period, with the most acute losses occurring adjacent to agrarian communities where cassava and cocoa cultivation are expanding. Illegal chainsaw milling operations were identified as the leading direct driver of forest loss, while land tenure insecurity and poverty emerged as underlying socio-economic pressures. The study evaluates the effectiveness of current forest guard deployment and community forest management initiatives, finding significant implementation gaps. Policy recommendations include enhanced satellite monitoring systems, community co-management agreements, and alternative livelihood support for forest-adjacent populations. The research provides updated spatial evidence to support the Ondo State Forestry Commission's conservation planning. Keywords: deforestation, forest reserves, remote sensing, Ondo State, community forest management.