Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Source-to-Sink Sediment Routing Systems in the Niger Delta: Implications for Turbidite Reservoir Prediction

The Niger Delta turbidite systems represent world-class deepwater hydrocarbon reservoirs whose spatial distribution and quality are ultimately controlled by sediment supply, routing efficiency, and transformation processes linking the continental hinterland source regions to deepwater depositional sinks, yet a quantitative source-to-sink framework for the Niger Delta has not been systematically developed. This study constructs and tests a theoretical and empirical source-to-sink framework for the Niger Delta sediment routing system, integrating sediment supply modelling, stratigraphic analysis, and turbidite reservoir characterisation. Catchment-scale sediment production rates for the Niger and Benue river drainage basins are estimated using the BQART model parameterised with basin area, relief, runoff, lithology, and land cover data for Cretaceous to present time steps. Sediment budget calculations track routing efficiency through alluvial, deltaic, and submarine fan environments, calibrated against published estimates of sediment flux to the Niger Delta continental shelf. The stratigraphic record of supply variations is evaluated from published sequence stratigraphic frameworks for the Niger Delta, identifying third-order cycles in turbidite system activity. A novel predictive framework linking upstream supply variability to deepwater sand distribution is developed and tested against a database of drilled turbidite discoveries. The study makes an original contribution to routing system theory by quantifying the temporal and spatial lag between upstream source changes and deepwater reservoir system responses. Keywords: source-to-sink, sediment routing, Niger Delta, turbidite reservoirs, BQART model.