Geospatial Analysis of Conflict Between Farming and Herding Communities in Benue and Nasarawa States

Recurrent conflict between farming and herding communities in Benue and Nasarawa States represents one of Nigeria's most persistent humanitarian and security crises, yet spatial analysis of conflict dynamics and environmental drivers remains limited relative to socio-political and policy literature. This study conducts a geospatial analysis of farmer-herder conflict distribution and intensity in Benue and Nasarawa States between 2018 and 2024, integrating ACLED conflict event data, remote sensing-derived environmental indicators, and spatial socioeconomic datasets. Conflict event hotspot analysis using space-time permutation scanning in SaTScan identifies statistically significant clusters, and spatiotemporal trend surfaces map the directional movement of conflict intensity over the study period. Spatial regression analysis examines the association between conflict intensity and explanatory variables including vegetation greenness anomalies, drought index derived from MODIS NDVI, water point density, cattle movement route proximity, and population displacement pressure. Results indicate that drought-induced vegetation deficits in the preceding dry season are significantly associated with elevated conflict incidence in border areas of the two states, particularly along the Benue-Nasarawa boundary. The findings support a resource competition theoretical framework and identify specific geographic zones where early intervention through water point development and conflict early warning systems could reduce crisis escalation risk. Keywords: farmer-herder conflict, geospatial analysis, Benue State, Nasarawa, spatial regression.