Spatial Modelling of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in Yobe and Borno States Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Agricultural drought is the most economically damaging climate hazard for smallholder farming communities in the semi-arid North East Nigeria, and spatially explicit vulnerability assessment is essential for targeting adaptive interventions. This study develops a spatial model of agricultural drought vulnerability for Yobe and Borno States, combining remote sensing hazard indicators with socioeconomic exposure and adaptive capacity data within a GIS vulnerability framework. The Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index derived from TAMSAT rainfall and ERA5 potential evapotranspiration data characterises drought hazard frequency and severity at ten-kilometre spatial resolution for the period 2015 to 2024. Agricultural exposure is derived from cropped area mapping using NDVI phenological analysis applied to MODIS time-series, and crop type suitability under identified drought return periods is assessed from FAO agroclimatic zone data. Adaptive capacity is modelled from household survey data on income diversity, asset ownership, access to drought-tolerant seed varieties, and distance to extension services, spatially interpolated using ordinary kriging. The composite vulnerability surface is computed at LGA level and classified into five vulnerability tiers. Results indicate that the southern agricultural zones of Borno and the central farming belt of Yobe exhibit the highest vulnerability, combining high drought hazard with low adaptive capacity among farmer households displaced or affected by conflict. The study provides spatial vulnerability evidence to the North East Development Commission and the Borno State Agricultural Development Programme. Keywords: agricultural drought, vulnerability mapping, remote sensing, North East Nigeria, GIS.