The African Union and Conflict Resolution in West Africa: An Assessment of Institutional Effectiveness

This study assesses the institutional effectiveness of the African Union in managing and resolving armed conflicts in West Africa, with analytical focus on its responses to political crises in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso between 2020 and 2023. The African Union has positioned itself as the primary continental security architecture for African conflict resolution, yet its track record in halting democratic backsliding and managing coup cascades in the West African sub-region has raised fundamental questions about its institutional credibility and enforcement capacity. Using a comparative case study design drawing on African Union Peace and Security Council deliberations, Assembly resolutions, official communiques, and assessments by African security studies scholars and regional organisations including the Economic Community of West African States, the study evaluates the African Union's response mechanisms against its own conflict prevention and resolution frameworks. The regional security architecture theory and the institutional effectiveness literature are applied to evaluate outcomes. Findings reveal that the African Union's responses to the three coup episodes were characterised by initial condemnation and suspension of affected states but lacked effective enforcement mechanisms to compel military juntas to restore constitutional rule within reasonable timelines. Sanctions imposed fell well short of those required to generate meaningful pressure on coup leaders, and internal divisions among member states reduced the coherence of the institutional response. The study also documents the influence of great power competition and counter-terrorism partnerships in complicating the African Union's normative stance on unconstitutional changes of government. Recommendations include strengthening the African Union's rapid deployment capacity for electoral assistance and reform of the Peace and Security Council decision-making rules to reduce veto vulnerability. Keywords: African Union, conflict resolution, West Africa, coups, regional security architecture