Metacognitive Beliefs, Rumination, and Depression in Nigerians: Developing and Testing a Metacognitive Model of Depression for African Populations

Wells's Metacognitive Model of depression posits that positive and negative metacognitive beliefs about rumination drive depressive disorders through cognitive attentional syndrome maintenance, but the model has never been tested in an African population, and its applicability to Nigerian cultural illness cognition requires original investigation. This study develops and tests a culturally informed Metacognitive Model of Depression for Nigerian adults through a two-phase investigation. Phase 1 conducts 40 in-depth cognitive interviews in Lagos State and Kano State to identify Nigerian-specific metacognitive beliefs about rumination, including culturally unique themes around overthinking, spiritual causes of worry, and communal mind-reading anxieties. Phase 2 applies a cross-sectional structural equation modelling study of 400 adults with elevated PHQ-9 scores, administering the Metacognitions Questionnaire-30, a Nigerian Metacognitive Beliefs Supplement developed from Phase 1 data, the Ruminative Response Scale, and the PHQ-9. The theoretical model is tested in AMOS with both Western and Nigerian-specific metacognitive pathways specified. Wells's Metacognitive Theory of Psychological Disorders, the Cognitive Model of Depression by Beck, and Afrocentric Psychology provide the theoretical framework. The original contribution is the first metacognitive model of depression tested and extended for an African population, with Nigeria-specific metacognitive content identified. Findings will advance theoretical understanding of depression maintenance mechanisms in Nigerian adults and inform CBT and MCT treatment adaptations. Keywords: metacognitive beliefs, rumination, depression, metacognitive model, Nigeria.