A Complex Systems Analysis of Gender-Based Violence Persistence in Nigeria

Gender-based violence in Nigeria persists despite sustained legislative, programmatic, and advocacy interventions, suggesting that conventional linear policy models are insufficient to account for its systemic reproduction. This study applies complex systems theory to analyse GBV persistence in Nigeria, investigating the feedback loops, tipping points, and emergent properties that maintain GBV as a systemic outcome. A critical realist paradigm underpins a multi-method design incorporating causal loop diagramming with 60 GBV experts and practitioners across five geopolitical zones, secondary data analysis of GBV trend indicators, and 45 in-depth interviews with survivors, perpetrators, and institutional actors. Systems dynamics modelling and thematic analysis were applied. Findings identify eight reinforcing feedback loops that sustain GBV systems in Nigeria, including the impunity-normalisation loop, the economic dependency-entrapment loop, and the institutional under-resourcing loop. Tipping points are identified in community-level social norm change processes, suggesting that targeted leverage interventions at specific system nodes could produce disproportionate positive change. The study demonstrates that isolated interventions without addressing feedback loop dynamics generate short-term impact but fail to alter the system trajectory. An original Complex Systems GBV Framework is developed, providing a new analytical tool for GBV programme design in Nigeria. Keywords: complex systems, gender-based violence, persistence, Nigeria, systems dynamics