A Complex Systems Approach to Understanding Curriculum Reform Failure in Nigerian Public Secondary Schools

Nigerian public secondary school curriculum reform has a documented history of incomplete implementation, and applying a complex systems theoretical lens to understand the failure mechanisms offers a more powerful explanatory model than conventional linear implementation theory. This study developed and applied a complex systems framework to understand curriculum reform failure in Nigerian public secondary schools, focusing on three major reform initiatives from 2010 to 2023. A complex systems research methodology was employed, combining agent-based modelling of curriculum reform implementation scenarios, system dynamics modelling of key reform variables, and qualitative systems mapping with 40 reform stakeholders from policy, school, and community domains across five geopolitical zones. Agent-based modelling confirmed that reform implementation fidelity was highly sensitive to small variations in teacher professional development quality and that examination culture operated as an attractor state that consistently pulled teaching practice away from reform intent. System dynamics modelling identified reinforcing feedback loops between examination pressure and curriculum compression that became stronger under reform pressure rather than weaker. Qualitative systems mapping generated a complex system map with 62 nodes and 147 influence relationships, identifying three leverage points for reform success: examination system alignment (highest leverage), teacher professional learning community formation (high leverage), and community-school curriculum negotiation (moderate leverage). The original Complex Curriculum Reform Model constitutes a significant methodological and theoretical contribution to Nigerian curriculum change scholarship.

Keywords: complex systems, curriculum reform failure, secondary school, Nigeria, agent-based modelling