📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
The cybersecurity challenges facing Nigeria's financial sector cannot be adequately understood through reductionist analytical approaches that treat individual institutions as independent threat actors. This study develops and validates a complex systems model of cybersecurity ecosystem resilience in Nigeria's financial sector, conceptualising banks, fintech firms, payment switches, regulators, and technology vendors as interdependent nodes within an evolving sociotechnical ecosystem. Drawing on complexity theory, resilience engineering, and network science, the research constructs a multi-layer network model of the Nigerian financial cybersecurity ecosystem using dependency mapping data collected through structured interviews with 56 chief information security officers, regulatory officials, and payment infrastructure operators. Agent-based simulation scenarios are used to model the propagation of cyberattack cascades through the network under varying resilience conditions. Results identify the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System payment switch and three systemically important commercial banks as critical nodes whose compromise would generate disproportionate ecosystem-wide disruptions. Resilience factors identified through simulation include the density of real-time threat intelligence sharing relationships, redundancy in payment infrastructure routing, and the regulatory enforcement intensity of minimum cybersecurity standards. The study's Complex Financial Cybersecurity Ecosystem Resilience Model represents an original theoretical and methodological contribution to cybersecurity scholarship, extending resilience analysis from individual institutional to systemic levels. Keywords: cybersecurity resilience, complex systems, financial sector, Nigeria, agent-based modelling.
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