A Complex Systems Perspective on Construction Cost Escalation in Nigerian Urban Housing Markets

Construction cost escalation in Nigerian urban housing markets exhibits non-linear dynamics that resist explanation by conventional linear economic models. This study investigates construction cost escalation in Nigerian urban housing markets from a complex systems theory perspective, examining emergent cost behaviours in Lagos, Abuja, Kano, and Port Harcourt. Agent-based modelling combined with system dynamics simulation was used to operationalise complex systems concepts, informed by ethnographic data from 48 construction market participants including developers, material suppliers, contractors, and regulators. Secondary data on material prices, exchange rates, credit conditions, and permit activity over a 15-year period complemented the primary data. Findings demonstrate that cost escalation in Nigerian urban markets is characterised by positive feedback loops (particularly between naira depreciation and import material costs), tipping point dynamics triggered by monetary policy shocks, and self-organising market adaptation behaviours not captured in linear models. The study identifies three distinct escalation regimes in Nigerian urban construction, each requiring different policy responses. An agent-based cost escalation model calibrated to Lagos data achieves predictive validity superior to existing regression-based approaches. This research makes an original theoretical contribution by introducing complex systems ontology into quantity surveying scholarship on construction market economics. Keywords: complex systems, construction cost escalation, urban housing, Nigeria, agent-based modelling