A Complex Systems Theory Approach to Understanding Youth Sports Dropout in Northern Nigeria

Youth sports dropout represents a significant failure of sports development systems and a public health concern given the loss of active lifestyle habits during adolescence. Existing linear causal models of dropout inadequately represent the non-linear, multi-level, and context-dependent nature of this phenomenon, particularly in Northern Nigerian cultural and institutional contexts. This dissertation applies complex systems theory to develop an original explanatory model of youth sports dropout in Northern Nigeria, constituting a novel theoretical approach to this research problem. Sequential phases include a systematic review of dropout literature and a critical appraisal of existing linear models, followed by multi-site ethnographic fieldwork across sports academies and school sports programmes in Kano, Sokoto, and Maiduguri. Agent-based modelling is used to simulate dropout dynamics based on empirically grounded parameters extracted from fieldwork data including individual motivational trajectories, peer network influences, family system responses, institutional policy changes, and cultural event disruptions. Simulation experiments identify tipping points and leverage points within the system that are not visible in variable-by-variable statistical models. Findings reveal that the intersection of family economic shocks, peer network fragmentation, and institutional sports funding irregularity creates compounding dropout cascades, with early dropout concentrating risk for subsequent cohort attrition. The complex systems model identifies coach retention and consistent institutional funding as the highest-leverage single system interventions. This dissertation advances theoretical understanding of dropout beyond individual-level models and provides a systems-informed framework for sports development policy. Keywords: youth sports dropout, complex systems theory, Northern Nigeria, agent-based modelling, sports development