A Complexity Science Approach to Understanding Nutrition Behaviour Change in Nigerian Urban Households

This study applies complexity science to understand nutrition behaviour change processes in Nigerian urban households, challenging conventional linear behaviour change models that have historically underperformed in producing sustained dietary improvements in Nigerian urban contexts. Urban Nigerian households operate within highly complex adaptive systems characterised by volatile food prices, diverse cultural influences, digital media saturation, and rapidly shifting social norms, conditions that demand non-linear analytical frameworks. The study employs a mixed-methods complexity-oriented design across Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, combining agent-based modelling with qualitative case studies of 40 urban households tracked across 18 months. Quantitative agent-based simulation data are integrated with ethnographic household observation and in-depth interview data through abductive triangulation. The Complex Adaptive Systems Theory and the Socio-Ecological Systems Framework jointly anchor the study. Original contributions include the first complexity-science model of nutrition behaviour change applied to Nigerian urban households, a validated household dietary adaptability index, and an agent-based simulation tool for dietary intervention design. Findings are expected to demonstrate that emergent behaviour patterns, feedback loops, and non-linear tipping points more accurately characterise dietary change than conventional stage-based models. Recommendations address nutrition behaviour change specialists, urban health planners, and Home Economics educators. Keywords: complexity science, nutrition behaviour change, urban households, agent-based modelling, Nigeria.