A Critical Realist Investigation of the Mechanisms Linking Vocational Education to Social Mobility in Nigeria

This study employs a critical realist framework to investigate the mechanisms through which vocational education facilitates or constrains social mobility in Nigeria. Social mobility, the movement of individuals across socioeconomic strata, is a key measure of the equity and developmental impact of education systems. Vocational education is frequently promoted as a social mobility vehicle for disadvantaged youth, yet the mechanisms through which this mobility occurs (or fails to) in the specific Nigerian context remain theoretically underspecified and empirically underexplored. Critical realism, with its distinction between structures, mechanisms, and outcomes, provides an appropriate analytical lens for explaining generative mechanisms that are not directly observable. A multi-method design combines secondary analysis of national household panel data to estimate education-mobility associations, in-depth life history interviews with 60 vocational graduates from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds across South East, South South, and North Central Nigeria, and expert interviews with 15 labour economists and education sociologists. Retroductive analysis identifies candidate mechanisms, and mechanism-context configurations explain variation in mobility outcomes. Findings are expected to reveal that social capital, entrepreneurial culture, family economic support, and access to post-qualification training are key mechanisms through which vocational education converts into social mobility. Theoretical contributions include a critical realist VTE social mobility model applicable to comparable contexts in Sub-Saharan Africa. Keywords: social mobility, vocational education, critical realism, mechanisms, Nigeria