A Critical Theoretical Investigation of Mass Incarceration Trends and Their Social Consequences in Nigeria

Nigeria's prison population has grown substantially over the past decade, driven primarily by pretrial detention expansion rather than sentencing reform, and a critical theoretical investigation of this mass incarceration trajectory and its social consequences for Nigerian communities provides an original contribution to African critical penology. This study conducted an original critical theoretical investigation of mass incarceration trends in Nigeria and their social consequences, developing a theoretical framework grounded in critical penology, African social theory, and primary empirical research. A critical theoretical methodology drawing on Wacquant's neoliberal penology, Christie's crime control as industry, and Mathiesen's abolitionist criminology was employed, supplemented by quantitative analysis of Nigerian Correctional Service population data from 2010 to 2023 and qualitative research with 40 ex-prisoners, 20 correctional officers, and 15 criminologists and criminal justice researchers. Population analysis confirmed a 67 percent increase in total correctional population from 2010 to 2023, with pretrial detainees consistently representing 65 to 72 percent of total population. Social consequence analysis using community surveys in three Lagos communities with high correctional cycling rates (defined as one in twenty adult males in the facility per year) confirmed significant social capital erosion, family economic disruption, and recidivism cycle reinforcement. The original Nigerian Mass Incarceration Theory proposes that Nigeria's incarceration growth is driven by three mutually reinforcing dynamics: poverty criminalisation, bail system resource stratification, and institutional expansion logic. Expert review confirmed original theoretical contribution to African penology.

Keywords: mass incarceration, critical penology, Nigeria, pretrial detention, social consequences