A Framework for Understanding EU Soft Power Effectiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria

This doctoral study develops an original theoretical framework for understanding the conditions under which EU soft power is effective in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Nigeria as its primary empirical reference case. Nye's soft power concept has been widely applied to EU external relations, yet systematic theory development on the conditions for EU soft power effectiveness in African contexts, which differ profoundly from the European neighbourhood for which most soft power theory is formulated, remains underdeveloped. This study advances an original Conditional Soft Power Effectiveness Framework (CSPEF) that identifies three categories of moderating conditions: Nigerian recipient characteristics (institutional capacity, colonial memory, strategic alternatives), EU soft power instrument quality (credibility, consistency, relevance), and environmental conditions (civil society density, media freedom, leadership type). Empirical evidence is generated through an original multi-method research design. Quantitative analysis examines correlation between EU soft power instrument deployment and Nigerian attitudinal alignment with EU positions across 15 foreign policy issues from 2015 to 2024. Qualitative process tracing investigates six cases of EU soft power impact and failure. A Nigerian public opinion survey on European Union perceptions is commissioned in six geopolitical zones. Original contributions include the CSPEF framework, the public opinion dataset, and theoretically grounded explanations for the variable performance of EU soft power in the Nigerian context. Keywords: EU soft power, Nigeria, Conditional Soft Power Effectiveness Framework, Africa-Europe relations, soft power theory.