A Structural Equation Model of E-Learning Success Factors in Nigerian Public Universities: Evidence from the North West Geopolitical Zone

This study develops and tests a structural equation model of e-learning success factors in Nigerian public universities, drawing evidence from institutions in the North West geopolitical zone. Existing e-learning success models have been predominantly developed and validated in Western and Asian higher education contexts, limiting their explanatory power in low-bandwidth, resource-constrained Nigerian settings. A cross-sectional quantitative survey design was employed with a sample of 600 undergraduates and 200 academic staff from Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto, Bayero University Kano, and Kebbi State University of Science and Technology. A 64-item validated instrument measured eight latent constructs: system quality, information quality, service quality, learner attitude, instructor competence, institutional support, learner satisfaction, and e-learning success. Confirmatory factor analysis established construct validity, and the full structural model was tested using maximum likelihood estimation in AMOS 24. Results confirm a good model fit and reveal that instructor competence and institutional support are the strongest direct predictors of e-learning success, while system quality exerts its effect through learner satisfaction as a full mediator. The study's original contribution is the validation of a contextually adapted e-learning success model for North West Nigerian public universities, providing a research tool and policy guide for institutional e-learning investments. Keywords: e-learning success, structural equation modelling, public universities, North West Nigeria, confirmatory factor analysis