A Theoretical Framework for the Ecoepidemiology of Antimicrobial Resistance Dissemination Across Human, Animal, and Environmental Compartments in the Nigerian Niger Delta

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) dissemination across human, animal, and environmental compartments constitutes a complex ecological and epidemiological challenge that existing single-compartment resistance models inadequately capture in low-income tropical delta ecosystems. This dissertation develops a theoretical ecoepidemiological framework for AMR dissemination in the Nigerian Niger Delta, integrating compartmental modelling, empirical surveillance, and social ecology theory to produce an original contribution to the One Health AMR literature. The framework is constructed through four phases: systematic review of 90 One Health AMR studies (2019 to 2024); structured empirical surveillance of human clinical isolates, livestock faeces, aquaculture water, and river sediment at 12 sites across Rivers, Delta, and Bayelsa States; mathematical modelling of resistance gene flow between compartments using stochastic differential equations; and expert validation with 20 Nigerian and international AMR researchers. The framework introduces the Niger Delta Resistance Flux Index (NDRFI), an original composite metric quantifying cross-compartment AMR gene exchange intensity incorporating antibiotic use pressure, connectivity between compartments, and ecological buffering capacity. NDRFI values correlate significantly with observed blaESBL prevalence across sampling sites. The dissertation identifies aquaculture effluents as the highest-flux transmission node in the Niger Delta AMR network, a finding not previously theorised in Nigerian resistance ecology literature. The framework provides a testable, parameterised model for predicting AMR dynamics under different antibiotic use policy scenarios in tropical delta settings globally. Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, ecoepidemiology, One Health, Niger Delta, resistance flux