A Theoretical Framework for Understanding the Political Economy of Early Childhood Education Investment in Nigeria

Early childhood education investment in Nigeria is shaped by complex political economic forces including budget allocation politics, donor influence, private sector expansion, and structural inequality, and developing an original theoretical framework for understanding this political economy fills a critical gap in both Nigerian education policy studies and global ECE political economy theory. This study developed an original Political Economy Framework for ECD Investment in Nigeria, drawing on political economy theory, historical analysis, and empirical research with policy actors across all levels of government. A constructive theoretical methodology combining systematic review of 74 ECD finance and political economy publications from 2018 to 2024, analysis of Nigerian government ECD budget data from 2010 to 2023, and structured interviews with 40 ECD policy stakeholders including federal and state ministry officials, donors, NGOs, and private sector representatives was employed. Historical analysis showed that federal ECD budget allocation never exceeded 0.3 percent of education spending from 2010 to 2023, despite consistent policy commitments to ECD prioritisation. Donor funding constituted the primary driver of ECD programme innovation, creating dependency and volatility. Private sector ECD expansion disproportionately served higher-income urban populations. The original Political Economy Framework proposes four analytical dimensions: budget politics, donor-state relationships, private market dynamics, and civil society ECD advocacy capacity. Each dimension includes mechanisms and policy leverage points. Expert review by 22 specialists confirmed the framework's original contribution. Recommendations include mandatory ECD budget line items in all state education budgets and an independent ECD investment monitoring coalition.