Advancing Nuclear Forensic Analysis Capabilities for Nigeria Through Development of Isotopic Signature Databases

Nuclear forensics, the scientific discipline that characterises nuclear and radiological materials to determine their origin and history, is a critical capability for national security and non-proliferation in an era of increasing global nuclear material trafficking concern. Nigeria's position as a major African state with a research reactor, uranium deposits, and significant international trade makes developing credible nuclear forensic capability a strategic priority. This study advances Nigeria's nuclear forensic analysis capabilities through development of isotopic signature databases for uranium ore deposits in Zamfara, Cross River, and Kogi states, and for nuclear materials processed at Nigerian facilities. High-purity germanium gamma spectrometry, thermal ionisation mass spectrometry, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry are applied to characterise uranium-lead isotope ratios, rare earth element patterns, and trace element fingerprints in ore and processed material samples. A hierarchical discriminant analysis model is developed to assign unknown samples to geological source regions using the compiled isotopic database. Leave-one-out cross-validation demonstrates correct source assignment in 89 percent of test samples. The study further develops and evaluates neutron activation analysis procedures for reactor-grade graphite characterisation as a forensic discriminator. Results provide the Nigerian Nuclear Regulatory Authority with a foundational forensic reference database. Keywords: nuclear forensics, isotopic signature, uranium ore, Nigeria, discriminant analysis